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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+9.31vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.05+4.31vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.25+5.94vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.08+6.33vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.46+3.03vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.38+2.69vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University1.55+4.99vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.42+0.61vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.92+1.86vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+1.68vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.73-4.67vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.78-4.13vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.45-4.48vs Predicted
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14University of Miami2.32-5.02vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.89-2.58vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-7.00vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.12-3.51vs Predicted
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18University of Hawaii2.27-9.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.7%1st Place
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6.31Harvard University3.0511.5%1st Place
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8.94U. S. Naval Academy2.255.5%1st Place
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10.33Bowdoin College2.084.3%1st Place
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8.03Tulane University2.466.3%1st Place
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8.69Cornell University2.386.2%1st Place
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11.99Jacksonville University1.552.5%1st Place
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8.61University of Pennsylvania2.426.2%1st Place
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10.86Connecticut College1.924.0%1st Place
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11.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.5%1st Place
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6.33Yale University2.7310.5%1st Place
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7.87University of Rhode Island2.788.0%1st Place
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8.52Roger Williams University2.455.9%1st Place
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8.98University of Miami2.324.8%1st Place
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12.42Fordham University1.892.4%1st Place
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9.0University of California at Santa Barbara2.045.3%1st Place
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13.49University of Michigan1.122.1%1st Place
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8.63University of Hawaii2.276.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.5% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Gavin McJones | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.5% |
| Christopher Lukens | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% |
| Cameron Giblin | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| Hayden Earl | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Matthew King | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 11.7% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| CJ Mckenna | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.8% |
| Jack Egan | 10.5% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Atlee Kohl | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 16.1% |
| Chris Kayda | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 26.7% |
| Bastien Rasse | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.