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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.73+5.51vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+6.24vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.25+6.12vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+7.92vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.89+7.35vs Predicted
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6University of Miami2.32+3.02vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.11vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University1.55+4.04vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.78-0.99vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.46-1.86vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.05-4.62vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.95-0.85vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.42-4.42vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-5.02vs Predicted
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15University of Hawaii2.27-6.43vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.06-6.12vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University2.45-8.58vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan1.12-4.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.51Yale University2.7310.8%1st Place
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8.24Cornell University2.386.8%1st Place
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9.12U. S. Naval Academy2.255.2%1st Place
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11.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.1%1st Place
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12.35Fordham University1.892.8%1st Place
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9.02University of Miami2.325.8%1st Place
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10.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.165.0%1st Place
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12.04Jacksonville University1.552.0%1st Place
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8.01University of Rhode Island2.787.4%1st Place
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8.14Tulane University2.467.5%1st Place
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6.38Harvard University3.059.1%1st Place
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11.15Connecticut College1.953.2%1st Place
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8.58University of Pennsylvania2.425.8%1st Place
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8.98University of California at Santa Barbara2.046.2%1st Place
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8.57University of Hawaii2.276.6%1st Place
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9.88Bowdoin College2.064.5%1st Place
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8.42Roger Williams University2.456.5%1st Place
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13.6University of Michigan1.121.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Egan | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Green | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| Gavin McJones | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 12.6% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 14.9% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.8% |
| Will Murray | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.8% |
| Matthew King | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 12.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| Cameron Giblin | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.1% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Walter Henry | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 7.9% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Chris Kayda | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Bastien Rasse | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 26.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.