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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.73+5.48vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.42+6.48vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.38+5.33vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.05+2.39vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.78+3.05vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College1.95+4.93vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.89+5.62vs Predicted
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8University of Hawaii2.27+0.51vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+2.58vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-1.13vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University1.55+0.92vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.25-2.93vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.46-5.04vs Predicted
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14University of Miami2.32-4.81vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.45-6.64vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-5.52vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.03-6.66vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan1.12-4.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.48Yale University2.738.9%1st Place
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8.48University of Pennsylvania2.427.1%1st Place
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8.33Cornell University2.386.2%1st Place
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6.39Harvard University3.0511.2%1st Place
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8.05University of Rhode Island2.787.5%1st Place
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10.93Connecticut College1.953.1%1st Place
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12.62Fordham University1.892.1%1st Place
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8.51University of Hawaii2.277.1%1st Place
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11.58U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.3%1st Place
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8.87University of California at Santa Barbara2.045.9%1st Place
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11.92Jacksonville University1.552.5%1st Place
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9.07U. S. Naval Academy2.256.0%1st Place
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7.96Tulane University2.467.5%1st Place
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9.19University of Miami2.325.1%1st Place
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8.36Roger Williams University2.457.3%1st Place
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10.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.163.1%1st Place
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10.34Bowdoin College2.033.9%1st Place
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13.43University of Michigan1.122.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Egan | 8.9% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| Bridget Green | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Walter Henry | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 18.0% |
| Bastien Rasse | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 10.4% |
| Chris Kayda | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% |
| Matthew King | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 14.1% |
| Gavin McJones | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
| Cameron Giblin | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Will Murray | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 4.7% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 15.2% | 25.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.