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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.25+7.55vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.73+4.02vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+4.52vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+5.91vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.12+6.37vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.45+1.98vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.42+1.05vs Predicted
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8University of Miami2.32+0.64vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.55+2.47vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+1.29vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College1.95-0.44vs Predicted
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12University of Hawaii2.27-3.92vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.04-3.41vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.38-6.09vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.89-2.66vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-7.37vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.12-3.79vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.08-8.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.55U. S. Naval Academy2.256.0%1st Place
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6.02Yale University2.7311.3%1st Place
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7.52University of Rhode Island2.789.2%1st Place
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9.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.2%1st Place
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11.37Harvard University2.122.5%1st Place
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7.98Roger Williams University2.456.8%1st Place
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8.05University of Pennsylvania2.427.1%1st Place
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8.64University of Miami2.326.2%1st Place
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11.47Jacksonville University1.553.4%1st Place
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11.29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.2%1st Place
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10.56Connecticut College1.954.0%1st Place
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8.08University of Hawaii2.277.4%1st Place
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9.59Tulane University2.045.5%1st Place
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7.91Cornell University2.388.2%1st Place
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12.34Fordham University1.892.4%1st Place
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8.63University of California at Santa Barbara2.045.8%1st Place
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13.21University of Michigan1.121.8%1st Place
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9.88Bowdoin College2.084.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin McJones | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Jack Egan | 11.3% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Will Murray | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.2% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.8% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Matthew King | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 11.2% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% |
| Walter Henry | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% |
| Bastien Rasse | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.4% |
| Bridget Green | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 15.4% |
| Chris Kayda | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 13.3% | 23.2% |
| Christopher Lukens | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.