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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.78+6.49vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.08+7.99vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.73+3.06vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+5.82vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.27+3.35vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.25+2.68vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+4.33vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.89+3.89vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.12+2.44vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.42-1.93vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.04-1.37vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan1.12+0.96vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.55-1.32vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.38-6.03vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College1.95-4.37vs Predicted
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16University of Miami2.32-7.55vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-8.45vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University2.45-9.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.49University of Rhode Island2.788.6%1st Place
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9.99Bowdoin College2.084.3%1st Place
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6.06Yale University2.7311.2%1st Place
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9.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.2%1st Place
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8.35University of Hawaii2.276.7%1st Place
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8.68U. S. Naval Academy2.256.9%1st Place
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11.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.0%1st Place
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11.89Fordham University1.893.1%1st Place
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11.44Harvard University2.123.1%1st Place
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8.07University of Pennsylvania2.427.2%1st Place
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9.63Tulane University2.044.5%1st Place
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12.96University of Michigan1.122.4%1st Place
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11.68Jacksonville University1.552.7%1st Place
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7.97Cornell University2.387.0%1st Place
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10.63Connecticut College1.953.6%1st Place
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8.45University of Miami2.327.0%1st Place
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8.55University of California at Santa Barbara2.047.2%1st Place
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8.02Roger Williams University2.457.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Christopher Lukens | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 4.5% |
| Jack Egan | 11.2% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% |
| Bastien Rasse | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| Gavin McJones | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 11.2% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 14.4% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 10.8% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.0% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 23.0% |
| Matthew King | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 10.6% |
| Bridget Green | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Walter Henry | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Chris Kayda | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.