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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.25+7.40vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+7.72vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.08+6.73vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.12+7.41vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.45+2.90vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.42+1.90vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.73-0.99vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.89+3.92vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.12+4.03vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.78-2.45vs Predicted
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11University of Hawaii2.27-2.86vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.38-4.24vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.04-3.46vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University1.55-2.68vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College1.45-2.59vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-7.56vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54-5.58vs Predicted
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18University of Miami2.32-9.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.4U. S. Naval Academy2.256.5%1st Place
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9.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.165.5%1st Place
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9.73Bowdoin College2.084.4%1st Place
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11.41Harvard University2.123.2%1st Place
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7.9Roger Williams University2.456.9%1st Place
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7.9University of Pennsylvania2.427.4%1st Place
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6.01Yale University2.7312.3%1st Place
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11.92Fordham University1.893.2%1st Place
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13.03University of Michigan1.122.2%1st Place
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7.55University of Rhode Island2.787.8%1st Place
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8.14University of Hawaii2.276.7%1st Place
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7.76Cornell University2.387.9%1st Place
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9.54Tulane University2.044.7%1st Place
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11.32Jacksonville University1.552.9%1st Place
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12.41Connecticut College1.452.3%1st Place
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8.44University of California at Santa Barbara2.046.5%1st Place
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11.42U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.4%1st Place
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8.41University of Miami2.326.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin McJones | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Will Murray | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% |
| Christopher Lukens | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Jack Egan | 12.3% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 13.2% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 23.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Bastien Rasse | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Bridget Green | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.2% |
| Matthew King | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.0% |
| Harris Padegs | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 14.4% |
| Chris Kayda | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.7% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.