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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+3.45vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+8.47vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.38+4.41vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.42+2.02vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.90+4.09vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.07+4.22vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University-1.38+3.77vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.88+2.21vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.21+1.44vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.60-3.49vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.62-0.55vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College2.29-3.52vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.74-2.29vs Predicted
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14University of Hawaii1.70-3.55vs Predicted
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15University of Miami1.93-5.29vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59-5.55vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island1.61-6.27vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.50-3.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.45Harvard University3.1816.2%1st Place
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10.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.554.3%1st Place
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7.41Bowdoin College2.388.4%1st Place
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6.02Yale University2.4211.8%1st Place
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9.09University of Pennsylvania1.904.8%1st Place
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10.22Roger Williams University2.074.0%1st Place
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10.77Jacksonville University-1.383.6%1st Place
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10.21Cornell University1.884.7%1st Place
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10.44Tulane University2.213.2%1st Place
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6.51U. S. Naval Academy2.609.2%1st Place
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10.45Fordham University1.624.3%1st Place
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8.48Connecticut College2.295.0%1st Place
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10.71University of California at Santa Barbara1.743.9%1st Place
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10.45University of Hawaii1.703.5%1st Place
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9.71University of Miami1.934.2%1st Place
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10.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.593.8%1st Place
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10.73University of Rhode Island1.613.6%1st Place
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14.42University of Michigan0.501.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 16.2% | 16.7% | 14.7% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Carmen Cowles | 11.8% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% |
| Emily Allen | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 6.8% |
| Meredith Moran | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 5.6% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| David Alexander | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% |
| Owen Lahr | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| Miles Williams | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.5% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 13.6% | 37.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.