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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.62+9.41vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.38+5.21vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island1.61+7.72vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.07+6.09vs Predicted
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5University of Miami1.93+4.67vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.88+4.58vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.42-0.96vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.21+2.47vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.29-0.53vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.18-5.54vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-0.40vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59-1.51vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.60-6.74vs Predicted
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14University of Hawaii1.70-3.48vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University-1.38-4.16vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania1.90-6.95vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara1.74-6.36vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.50-3.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.41Fordham University1.623.7%1st Place
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7.21Bowdoin College2.387.6%1st Place
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10.72University of Rhode Island1.613.9%1st Place
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10.09Roger Williams University2.074.2%1st Place
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9.67University of Miami1.934.5%1st Place
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10.58Cornell University1.882.9%1st Place
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6.04Yale University2.4211.5%1st Place
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10.47Tulane University2.213.5%1st Place
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8.47Connecticut College2.295.8%1st Place
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4.46Harvard University3.1816.7%1st Place
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10.6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.8%1st Place
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10.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.593.5%1st Place
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6.26U. S. Naval Academy2.6010.8%1st Place
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10.52University of Hawaii1.703.9%1st Place
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10.84Jacksonville University-1.383.4%1st Place
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9.05University of Pennsylvania1.905.6%1st Place
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10.64University of California at Santa Barbara1.743.5%1st Place
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14.52University of Michigan0.501.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Dolan | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Miles Williams | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.3% |
| Meredith Moran | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.3% |
| Carmen Cowles | 11.5% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 4.3% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.7% | 15.9% | 14.6% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.3% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 4.6% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Owen Lahr | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% |
| Emily Allen | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.3% |
| Javier Garcon | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% |
| David Alexander | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.6% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 13.2% | 39.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.