← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Connecticut College2.29+7.54vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+8.58vs Predicted
-
3Yale University2.42+3.08vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.66vs Predicted
-
5Bowdoin College2.38+2.16vs Predicted
-
6Tulane University2.21+4.47vs Predicted
-
7Roger Williams University2.07+3.05vs Predicted
-
8University of Pennsylvania1.90+1.11vs Predicted
-
9Harvard University3.18-4.60vs Predicted
-
10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59+0.42vs Predicted
-
11Jacksonville University-1.38-0.06vs Predicted
-
12University of Hawaii1.70-1.73vs Predicted
-
13University of Miami1.93-3.19vs Predicted
-
14Cornell University1.88-3.68vs Predicted
-
15Fordham University1.62-4.67vs Predicted
-
16University of California at Santa Barbara1.74-5.42vs Predicted
-
17University of Rhode Island1.61-6.22vs Predicted
-
18University of Michigan0.50-3.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.54Connecticut College2.295.1%1st Place
-
10.58U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.9%1st Place
-
6.08Yale University2.4211.3%1st Place
-
6.66U. S. Naval Academy2.608.6%1st Place
-
7.16Bowdoin College2.389.2%1st Place
-
10.47Tulane University2.213.6%1st Place
-
10.05Roger Williams University2.074.2%1st Place
-
9.11University of Pennsylvania1.904.8%1st Place
-
4.4Harvard University3.1819.8%1st Place
-
10.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.593.4%1st Place
-
10.94Jacksonville University-1.383.2%1st Place
-
10.27University of Hawaii1.703.8%1st Place
-
9.81University of Miami1.933.7%1st Place
-
10.32Cornell University1.883.6%1st Place
-
10.33Fordham University1.623.5%1st Place
-
10.58University of California at Santa Barbara1.743.5%1st Place
-
10.78University of Rhode Island1.613.5%1st Place
-
14.51University of Michigan0.501.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% |
| Carmen Cowles | 11.3% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.7% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Justin Callahan | 19.8% | 16.2% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% |
| Emily Allen | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% |
| Owen Lahr | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 4.5% |
| Aidan Dennis | 3.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Meredith Moran | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.9% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% |
| David Alexander | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.9% |
| Miles Williams | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 12.1% | 39.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.