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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.07+8.99vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.88+8.35vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.18+1.52vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.29+4.70vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.60+1.60vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.70+4.65vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.21+3.66vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.61+2.71vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.62+1.39vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.38-2.78vs Predicted
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11University of Miami1.93-1.28vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara1.74-1.37vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania1.90-3.75vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-3.47vs Predicted
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15Yale University2.42-9.01vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University-1.38-5.02vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.50-2.63vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-8.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.99Roger Williams University2.074.5%1st Place
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10.35Cornell University1.884.1%1st Place
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4.52Harvard University3.1818.1%1st Place
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8.7Connecticut College2.296.3%1st Place
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6.6U. S. Naval Academy2.609.1%1st Place
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10.65University of Hawaii1.703.2%1st Place
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10.66Tulane University2.213.8%1st Place
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10.71University of Rhode Island1.613.8%1st Place
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10.39Fordham University1.624.0%1st Place
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7.22Bowdoin College2.387.7%1st Place
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9.72University of Miami1.934.3%1st Place
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10.63University of California at Santa Barbara1.742.7%1st Place
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9.25University of Pennsylvania1.904.5%1st Place
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10.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.5%1st Place
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5.99Yale University2.4212.0%1st Place
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10.98Jacksonville University-1.382.6%1st Place
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14.37University of Michigan0.501.3%1st Place
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9.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Wood | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 3.9% |
| Meredith Moran | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% |
| Justin Callahan | 18.1% | 16.0% | 14.1% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.1% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Owen Lahr | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.1% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% |
| Miles Williams | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% |
| David Alexander | 2.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.9% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.2% |
| Carmen Cowles | 12.0% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Emily Allen | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 12.6% | 38.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.