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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.42+5.00vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.62+8.36vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.38+4.28vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+5.59vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.77+4.64vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.61+5.06vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.88+3.45vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.60-1.55vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+1.66vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+0.56vs Predicted
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11University of Miami1.93-1.21vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.18-7.60vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.21-2.41vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College2.29-5.53vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University-1.38-4.25vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii1.70-5.53vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.50-2.59vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University2.07-7.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.0Yale University2.4211.6%1st Place
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10.36Fordham University1.623.4%1st Place
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7.28Bowdoin College2.387.6%1st Place
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9.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.5%1st Place
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9.64University of Pennsylvania1.773.9%1st Place
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11.06University of Rhode Island1.613.2%1st Place
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10.45Cornell University1.883.8%1st Place
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6.45U. S. Naval Academy2.609.2%1st Place
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10.66University of California at Santa Barbara1.744.0%1st Place
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10.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.554.7%1st Place
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9.79University of Miami1.934.2%1st Place
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4.4Harvard University3.1819.1%1st Place
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10.59Tulane University2.213.3%1st Place
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8.47Connecticut College2.295.7%1st Place
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10.75Jacksonville University-1.383.4%1st Place
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10.47University of Hawaii1.703.4%1st Place
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14.41University of Michigan0.501.4%1st Place
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10.08Roger Williams University2.073.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 11.6% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.7% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.9% |
| Sofia Segalla | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% |
| Miles Williams | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 6.8% |
| Meredith Moran | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.2% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| David Alexander | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 5.4% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.6% |
| Justin Callahan | 19.1% | 15.1% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Emily Allen | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.4% |
| Owen Lahr | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.8% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 38.1% |
| Cameron Wood | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.