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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+3.56vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.29+6.64vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.07+7.08vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.21+6.48vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.60+1.56vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+3.64vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.62+3.39vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.38-0.72vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.42-2.87vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.61+0.92vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University-1.38-0.12vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.77-2.56vs Predicted
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13University of Miami1.93-3.25vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-3.44vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara1.74-4.40vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii1.70-5.63vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.50-2.67vs Predicted
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18Cornell University1.88-7.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.56Harvard University3.1815.9%1st Place
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8.64Connecticut College2.295.2%1st Place
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10.08Roger Williams University2.074.2%1st Place
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10.48Tulane University2.214.3%1st Place
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6.56U. S. Naval Academy2.609.8%1st Place
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9.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.5%1st Place
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10.39Fordham University1.624.0%1st Place
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7.28Bowdoin College2.388.1%1st Place
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6.13Yale University2.429.7%1st Place
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10.92University of Rhode Island1.613.3%1st Place
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10.88Jacksonville University-1.383.6%1st Place
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9.44University of Pennsylvania1.775.2%1st Place
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9.75University of Miami1.934.5%1st Place
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10.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.4%1st Place
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10.6University of California at Santa Barbara1.744.6%1st Place
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10.37University of Hawaii1.704.1%1st Place
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14.33University of Michigan0.501.4%1st Place
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10.39Cornell University1.884.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 15.9% | 16.6% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.8% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 2.9% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Carmen Cowles | 9.7% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Miles Williams | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 5.9% |
| Emily Allen | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.5% |
| Sofia Segalla | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% |
| David Alexander | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 5.9% |
| Owen Lahr | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 37.8% |
| Meredith Moran | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.