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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.38+6.14vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.42+3.93vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.21+7.30vs Predicted
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4University of Miami1.57+6.68vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.18-0.59vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.62+4.24vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.77+2.63vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.60-1.63vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii1.70+1.40vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College2.29-1.61vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.61-0.44vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-2.28vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.07-3.17vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.74-3.54vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-4.54vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University1.20-3.94vs Predicted
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17Cornell University1.88-6.88vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.50-3.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.14Bowdoin College2.387.9%1st Place
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5.93Yale University2.4212.2%1st Place
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10.3Tulane University2.213.5%1st Place
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10.68University of Miami1.573.5%1st Place
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4.41Harvard University3.1818.1%1st Place
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10.24Fordham University1.623.9%1st Place
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9.63University of Pennsylvania1.773.8%1st Place
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6.37U. S. Naval Academy2.609.7%1st Place
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10.4University of Hawaii1.703.6%1st Place
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8.39Connecticut College2.296.5%1st Place
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10.56University of Rhode Island1.613.8%1st Place
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9.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.2%1st Place
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9.83Roger Williams University2.074.0%1st Place
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10.46University of California at Santa Barbara1.742.6%1st Place
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10.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.554.1%1st Place
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12.06Jacksonville University1.202.4%1st Place
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10.12Cornell University1.884.2%1st Place
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14.29University of Michigan0.502.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Carmen Cowles | 12.2% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.2% |
| Richard McCann | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 5.9% |
| Justin Callahan | 18.1% | 15.2% | 15.0% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 3.9% |
| Sofia Segalla | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.7% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Owen Lahr | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.1% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Miles Williams | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.4% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% |
| David Alexander | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 4.9% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 4.6% |
| Brent Penwarden | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 13.8% |
| Meredith Moran | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.3% |
| Brody Schwartz | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 13.2% | 37.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.