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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.38+5.95vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.18+2.37vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College2.29+5.33vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.34vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.21+5.41vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.70+4.29vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.42-0.86vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.77+1.51vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+1.54vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.62+0.28vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.74-0.54vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-2.57vs Predicted
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13University of Miami1.57-2.16vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.07-4.31vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University1.20-2.77vs Predicted
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16Cornell University1.88-5.70vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island1.61-6.35vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.50-3.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.95Bowdoin College2.389.4%1st Place
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4.37Harvard University3.1817.9%1st Place
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8.33Connecticut College2.295.5%1st Place
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6.34U. S. Naval Academy2.6010.8%1st Place
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10.41Tulane University2.213.5%1st Place
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10.29University of Hawaii1.703.1%1st Place
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6.14Yale University2.4210.7%1st Place
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9.51University of Pennsylvania1.774.5%1st Place
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10.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.9%1st Place
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10.28Fordham University1.623.4%1st Place
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10.46University of California at Santa Barbara1.743.8%1st Place
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9.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.1%1st Place
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10.84University of Miami1.573.1%1st Place
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9.69Roger Williams University2.074.7%1st Place
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12.23Jacksonville University1.203.0%1st Place
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10.3Cornell University1.883.8%1st Place
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10.65University of Rhode Island1.612.9%1st Place
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14.26University of Michigan0.501.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Justin Callahan | 17.9% | 15.2% | 15.2% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.8% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.7% |
| Owen Lahr | 3.1% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% |
| Carmen Cowles | 10.7% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
| David Alexander | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% |
| Richard McCann | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% |
| Brent Penwarden | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 14.5% |
| Meredith Moran | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.3% |
| Miles Williams | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.4% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 34.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.