Race 1B

wet-your-willie

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Phillip Morley 11.3% 13.7% 13.9% 15.0% 13.0% 12.5% 8.8% 6.3% 2.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ian Walter 4.2% 3.3% 5.1% 7.2% 9.8% 11.1% 11.3% 12.2% 13.5% 9.4% 6.0% 4.2% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Ellen Dubois 7.1% 10.0% 12.0% 10.8% 14.9% 14.9% 11.7% 9.3% 5.1% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Laura Wefer 33.8% 24.5% 16.7% 12.9% 7.2% 3.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake Lundeen 19.4% 19.5% 18.5% 16.7% 11.0% 6.7% 4.5% 2.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Meghan Bouman 2.7% 2.7% 4.1% 4.5% 5.7% 8.2% 11.9% 14.8% 12.7% 11.2% 10.3% 6.8% 2.7% 1.3% 0.4%
Jessie Olson 13.5% 14.7% 18.0% 15.0% 14.2% 9.2% 8.2% 3.9% 2.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Melinda Lee 3.2% 4.8% 4.9% 7.9% 8.2% 11.3% 13.2% 10.7% 13.4% 8.8% 7.0% 4.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0%
C Jones 0.9% 1.0% 1.7% 1.8% 4.6% 4.6% 6.9% 9.2% 11.1% 13.8% 13.6% 11.6% 10.2% 6.2% 2.8%
David Mirkhaef 1.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.9% 4.3% 6.4% 7.7% 9.7% 12.9% 13.1% 12.4% 10.5% 7.4% 4.7% 2.2%
Katy Carlyle 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 1.2% 0.9% 1.8% 1.8% 3.0% 4.1% 6.0% 8.4% 11.8% 14.2% 18.7% 26.5%
Rebecca Jegier 0.9% 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 2.6% 5.2% 6.4% 7.6% 11.8% 12.8% 16.5% 17.0% 14.5%
Andrew Roth 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 2.0% 2.7% 2.1% 3.3% 5.3% 5.6% 10.2% 14.5% 19.5% 32.8%
Edward Zelenak 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 1.6% 2.9% 3.3% 4.6% 4.6% 8.9% 11.7% 12.7% 14.0% 19.8% 13.2%
Harrison Faust 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 2.0% 2.4% 4.1% 4.5% 6.0% 6.6% 10.1% 11.5% 14.4% 16.2% 12.0% 7.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.