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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+3.54vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.29+6.56vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.77+6.45vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.21+6.40vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.60+1.58vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+4.56vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.42-1.03vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+1.52vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.07+0.93vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.38-2.84vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.88-0.52vs Predicted
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12University of Miami1.93-2.41vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University-1.38-2.24vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.62-3.81vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island1.61-4.34vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-0.01-0.46vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara1.74-6.32vs Predicted
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18University of Hawaii1.70-7.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.54Harvard University3.1818.3%1st Place
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8.56Connecticut College2.295.5%1st Place
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9.45University of Pennsylvania1.775.2%1st Place
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10.4Tulane University2.213.9%1st Place
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6.58U. S. Naval Academy2.608.8%1st Place
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10.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.8%1st Place
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5.97Yale University2.4211.2%1st Place
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9.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.1%1st Place
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9.93Roger Williams University2.073.9%1st Place
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7.16Bowdoin College2.387.1%1st Place
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10.48Cornell University1.883.4%1st Place
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9.59University of Miami1.934.5%1st Place
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10.76Jacksonville University-1.383.3%1st Place
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10.19Fordham University1.624.2%1st Place
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10.66University of Rhode Island1.613.2%1st Place
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15.54University of Michigan-0.010.9%1st Place
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10.68University of California at Santa Barbara1.744.2%1st Place
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10.43University of Hawaii1.703.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Justin Callahan | 18.3% | 14.0% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Thomas Whittemore | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
Sofia Segalla | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 4.5% |
Nathan Smith | 8.8% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
Jack Vanderhorst | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 4.8% |
Carmen Cowles | 11.2% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
Cameron Wood | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.3% |
Thomas Hall | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
Meredith Moran | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 3.5% |
Aidan Dennis | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 2.5% |
Emily Allen | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 4.8% |
Patrick Dolan | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 3.5% |
Miles Williams | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 4.5% |
Samuel Stephens | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 52.7% |
David Alexander | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 5.5% |
Owen Lahr | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.