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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+8.33vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.18+2.56vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.60+3.29vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.88+6.52vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.07+4.93vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.42+0.05vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.38+0.28vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+1.71vs Predicted
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9University of Miami1.93+0.73vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College2.29-1.45vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.21-0.45vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-1.44vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.62-2.69vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island1.61-3.40vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University-1.38-4.38vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-0.01-0.59vs Predicted
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17University of Hawaii1.70-6.54vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Barbara1.74-7.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.33University of Pennsylvania1.774.9%1st Place
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4.56Harvard University3.1816.6%1st Place
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6.29U. S. Naval Academy2.6010.5%1st Place
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10.52Cornell University1.884.1%1st Place
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9.93Roger Williams University2.074.4%1st Place
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6.05Yale University2.4211.1%1st Place
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7.28Bowdoin College2.388.0%1st Place
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9.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.1%1st Place
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9.73University of Miami1.934.2%1st Place
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8.55Connecticut College2.294.8%1st Place
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10.55Tulane University2.214.0%1st Place
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10.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.4%1st Place
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10.31Fordham University1.623.9%1st Place
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10.6University of Rhode Island1.613.4%1st Place
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10.62Jacksonville University-1.383.7%1st Place
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15.41University of Michigan-0.010.6%1st Place
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10.46University of Hawaii1.703.8%1st Place
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10.52University of California at Santa Barbara1.743.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.3% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.6% | 17.3% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.5% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Meredith Moran | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 4.3% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 11.1% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 2.4% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 4.1% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 4.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.0% |
| Miles Williams | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.1% |
| Emily Allen | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 4.4% |
| Samuel Stephens | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 11.1% | 52.6% |
| Owen Lahr | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 4.4% |
| David Alexander | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.