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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.42+5.10vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.21+8.55vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.60+3.43vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.18+0.34vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.38+2.12vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+4.46vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.29+1.64vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.07+1.98vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.88+1.34vs Predicted
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10University of Miami1.93-0.54vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.77-1.40vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-2.28vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University-1.38-2.24vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island1.61-3.39vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara1.74-4.33vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii1.70-5.63vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-0.01-1.50vs Predicted
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18Fordham University1.62-7.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.1Yale University2.4210.4%1st Place
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10.55Tulane University2.213.2%1st Place
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6.43U. S. Naval Academy2.6010.2%1st Place
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4.34Harvard University3.1819.8%1st Place
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7.12Bowdoin College2.387.3%1st Place
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10.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.5%1st Place
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8.64Connecticut College2.295.3%1st Place
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9.98Roger Williams University2.074.4%1st Place
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10.34Cornell University1.884.5%1st Place
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9.46University of Miami1.934.6%1st Place
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9.6University of Pennsylvania1.774.9%1st Place
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9.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.6%1st Place
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10.76Jacksonville University-1.383.2%1st Place
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10.61University of Rhode Island1.613.8%1st Place
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10.67University of California at Santa Barbara1.742.9%1st Place
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10.37University of Hawaii1.703.8%1st Place
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15.5University of Michigan-0.010.9%1st Place
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10.35Fordham University1.623.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carmen Cowles | 10.4% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.2% |
Nathan Smith | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
Justin Callahan | 19.8% | 16.0% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Thomas Hall | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
Jack Vanderhorst | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
Thomas Whittemore | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
Cameron Wood | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.2% |
Meredith Moran | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 3.5% |
Aidan Dennis | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
Sofia Segalla | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% |
Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% |
Emily Allen | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 4.6% |
Miles Williams | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 4.8% |
David Alexander | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 4.5% |
Owen Lahr | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 4.3% |
Samuel Stephens | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 11.1% | 54.1% |
Patrick Dolan | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 3.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.