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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.38+5.96vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University1.20+10.16vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College2.29+5.12vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.42+1.78vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.60+5.64vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+4.59vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.18-2.70vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.60-1.78vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.07+0.78vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.21+0.26vs Predicted
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11University of Miami1.93-1.67vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara1.74-1.67vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.88-2.84vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island1.61-3.51vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.62-4.91vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii1.70-5.78vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59-6.89vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan-0.01-2.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.96Bowdoin College2.388.0%1st Place
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12.16Jacksonville University1.202.8%1st Place
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8.12Connecticut College2.296.2%1st Place
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5.78Yale University2.4212.8%1st Place
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10.64University of Pennsylvania1.602.9%1st Place
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10.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.6%1st Place
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4.3Harvard University3.1818.9%1st Place
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6.22U. S. Naval Academy2.609.3%1st Place
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9.78Roger Williams University2.073.8%1st Place
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10.26Tulane University2.213.5%1st Place
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9.33University of Miami1.933.9%1st Place
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10.33University of California at Santa Barbara1.743.8%1st Place
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10.16Cornell University1.884.2%1st Place
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10.49University of Rhode Island1.614.0%1st Place
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10.09Fordham University1.624.7%1st Place
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10.22University of Hawaii1.703.5%1st Place
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10.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.593.4%1st Place
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15.45University of Michigan-0.010.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Brent Penwarden | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 11.8% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Carmen Cowles | 12.8% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Gavula | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.2% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 4.3% |
| Justin Callahan | 18.9% | 16.4% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Wood | 3.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 2.7% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.2% |
| Aidan Dennis | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| David Alexander | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.5% |
| Meredith Moran | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.2% |
| Miles Williams | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 4.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 3.0% |
| Owen Lahr | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 3.4% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Samuel Stephens | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 13.5% | 49.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.