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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+3.27vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.42+3.87vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.07+6.83vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.62+5.97vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.38+1.79vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.29+2.10vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.21+3.28vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+2.14vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59+1.09vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.60+0.38vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-0.76vs Predicted
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12University of Miami1.57-1.21vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.60-6.73vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.88-4.06vs Predicted
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15University of Hawaii1.70-4.79vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-0.01-0.47vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island1.61-6.69vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University1.20-6.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.27Harvard University3.1819.1%1st Place
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5.87Yale University2.4212.1%1st Place
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9.83Roger Williams University2.073.7%1st Place
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9.97Fordham University1.624.0%1st Place
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6.79Bowdoin College2.388.8%1st Place
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8.1Connecticut College2.296.6%1st Place
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10.28Tulane University2.213.2%1st Place
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10.14University of California at Santa Barbara1.744.0%1st Place
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10.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.593.9%1st Place
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10.38University of Pennsylvania1.604.0%1st Place
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10.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.3%1st Place
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10.79University of Miami1.572.9%1st Place
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6.27U. S. Naval Academy2.609.5%1st Place
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9.94Cornell University1.884.0%1st Place
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10.21University of Hawaii1.703.9%1st Place
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15.53University of Michigan-0.010.6%1st Place
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10.31University of Rhode Island1.613.5%1st Place
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11.97Jacksonville University1.202.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
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Justin Callahan | 19.1% | 16.0% | 14.8% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Carmen Cowles | 12.1% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Cameron Wood | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 2.5% |
Patrick Dolan | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.2% |
Thomas Hall | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
Thomas Whittemore | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% |
David Alexander | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 3.5% |
Nicholas Sessions | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 3.2% |
Samuel Gavula | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 3.9% |
Jack Vanderhorst | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 2.9% |
Richard McCann | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.1% |
Nathan Smith | 9.5% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Meredith Moran | 4.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 2.6% |
Owen Lahr | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% |
Samuel Stephens | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 11.6% | 51.0% |
Miles Williams | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.3% |
Brent Penwarden | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 13.6% | 9.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.