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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+3.20vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.88+8.13vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.38+3.82vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.21+6.14vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.61+5.34vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.60+0.26vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.29+1.36vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+2.26vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.62+0.94vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii1.700.00vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.07-1.41vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.20-0.04vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.74-2.50vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59-3.81vs Predicted
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15University of Miami1.57-4.31vs Predicted
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16Yale University2.42-10.14vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-0.01-1.75vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania1.60-7.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.2Harvard University3.1819.4%1st Place
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10.13Cornell University1.884.2%1st Place
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6.82Bowdoin College2.388.9%1st Place
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10.14Tulane University2.213.5%1st Place
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10.34University of Rhode Island1.612.9%1st Place
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6.26U. S. Naval Academy2.609.8%1st Place
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8.36Connecticut College2.295.1%1st Place
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10.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.553.4%1st Place
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9.94Fordham University1.624.2%1st Place
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10.0University of Hawaii1.704.3%1st Place
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9.59Roger Williams University2.074.8%1st Place
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11.96Jacksonville University1.202.5%1st Place
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10.5University of California at Santa Barbara1.743.5%1st Place
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10.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.594.3%1st Place
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10.69University of Miami1.573.2%1st Place
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5.86Yale University2.4211.8%1st Place
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15.25University of Michigan-0.010.8%1st Place
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10.51University of Pennsylvania1.603.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 19.4% | 17.3% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Moran | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.7% |
| Miles Williams | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 3.8% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.5% |
| Owen Lahr | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 3.4% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| Brent Penwarden | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 10.5% |
| David Alexander | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 3.8% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 2.9% |
| Richard McCann | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 4.7% |
| Carmen Cowles | 11.8% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Stephens | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 13.5% | 47.3% |
| Samuel Gavula | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 4.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.