← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+5.47vs Predicted
-
2Georgetown University4.74+1.93vs Predicted
-
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+3.59vs Predicted
-
4Old Dominion University4.01+1.88vs Predicted
-
5George Washington University2.38+7.05vs Predicted
-
6University of Virginia3.54+1.68vs Predicted
-
7SUNY Maritime College3.60+0.38vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University3.11+1.22vs Predicted
-
9Columbia University2.55+2.53vs Predicted
-
10University of Buffalo2.44+2.15vs Predicted
-
11Cornell University2.77-0.22vs Predicted
-
12Washington College3.07-2.19vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Naval Academy3.67-6.00vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-4.37vs Predicted
-
15Christopher Newport University2.46-3.22vs Predicted
-
16University of Pennsylvania2.68-4.94vs Predicted
-
17Monmouth University1.95-3.21vs Predicted
-
18Webb Institute1.71-3.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.47St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
-
3.93Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
-
6.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
-
5.88Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
-
12.05George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
-
7.68University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
-
7.38SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
-
9.22Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
-
11.53Columbia University2.550.0%1st Place
-
12.15University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
-
10.78Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
-
9.81Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
-
7.0U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
-
9.63U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
-
11.78Christopher Newport University2.460.0%1st Place
-
11.06University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
-
13.79Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
-
14.25Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Greenslade | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Chris Barnard | 17.8% | 19.3% | 15.3% | 13.5% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 10.8% | 12.4% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ian Connors | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.3% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Harry Scott | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Connor Godfrey | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Conor Cashel | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 5.3% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.6% |
| Duncan Howes | 4.1% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
| Michael Grove | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| Ben Buhl | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 7.9% |
| Michael Russom | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 5.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 15.8% | 22.9% |
| Nathan Fast | 1.8% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 16.5% | 27.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.