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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.74+2.99vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University4.01+4.11vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+3.54vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+2.13vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.67+2.14vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+3.98vs Predicted
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7Washington College3.07+2.47vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia3.54-0.49vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.68+2.01vs Predicted
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10Monmouth University1.95+3.85vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.60-3.49vs Predicted
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12Fordham University3.11-2.36vs Predicted
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13Columbia University2.55-1.63vs Predicted
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14University of Buffalo2.44-2.36vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.77-4.40vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.38-3.75vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University2.46-5.02vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute1.71-3.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.99Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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6.11Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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6.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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6.13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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9.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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9.47Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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7.51University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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11.01University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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13.85Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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7.51SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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9.64Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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11.37Columbia University2.550.0%1st Place
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11.64University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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10.6Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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12.25George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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11.98Christopher Newport University2.460.0%1st Place
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14.27Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Barnard | 19.6% | 18.8% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Michael Grove | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Bates | 4.3% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Michael Russom | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 4.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 15.7% | 23.9% |
| Harry Scott | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Connor Godfrey | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Conor Cashel | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.6% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 7.1% |
| Duncan Howes | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 3.4% |
| Ian Connors | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 9.7% |
| Ben Buhl | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 16.0% | 28.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.