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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+5.67vs Predicted
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2Washington College3.07+7.75vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.60+4.57vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University4.74-0.21vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia3.54+2.56vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.67+1.13vs Predicted
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7Fordham University3.11+2.33vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.77+2.56vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-2.83vs Predicted
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10Columbia University2.55+1.74vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University4.01-4.98vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.38+0.54vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.81+0.95vs Predicted
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14University of Buffalo2.44-2.39vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University2.46-3.14vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.68-4.92vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-6.88vs Predicted
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18Monmouth University1.95-4.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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9.75Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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7.57SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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3.79Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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7.56University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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7.13U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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9.33Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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10.56Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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6.17St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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11.74Columbia University2.550.0%1st Place
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6.02Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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12.54George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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13.95Webb Institute1.810.0%1st Place
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11.61University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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11.86Christopher Newport University2.460.0%1st Place
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11.08University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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10.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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13.53Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Norfleet | 7.4% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| Harry Scott | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Chris Barnard | 21.6% | 20.6% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Michael Grove | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Connor Godfrey | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 8.4% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 7.2% |
| Dillon Paiva | 11.7% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ian Connors | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 12.1% | 13.7% |
| Dylan Froriep | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 15.1% | 27.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.1% |
| Ben Buhl | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 7.7% |
| Michael Russom | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 14.7% | 19.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.