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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University4.01+5.13vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.67+5.35vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University4.74+0.86vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+2.17vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.60+2.42vs Predicted
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6Fordham University3.11+3.35vs Predicted
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7University of Virginia3.54+0.68vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+1.85vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.55+2.56vs Predicted
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10University of Buffalo2.44+2.14vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-4.49vs Predicted
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12Washington College3.07-2.17vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.38-0.96vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.68-3.32vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute1.81-0.88vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.77-5.24vs Predicted
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17Monmouth University1.95-3.19vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University2.46-6.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.13Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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7.35U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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3.86Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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6.17St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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7.42SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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9.35Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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7.68University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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9.85U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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11.56Columbia University2.550.0%1st Place
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12.14University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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6.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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9.83Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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12.04George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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10.68University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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14.12Webb Institute1.810.0%1st Place
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10.76Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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13.81Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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11.74Christopher Newport University2.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Paiva | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Grove | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Chris Barnard | 19.5% | 17.8% | 17.4% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Harry Scott | 7.0% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Connor Godfrey | 4.8% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Andrew Bates | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Conor Cashel | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.1% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 9.5% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| Ian Connors | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 10.2% |
| Michael Russom | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.4% |
| Dylan Froriep | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 14.8% | 26.7% |
| Duncan Howes | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 4.1% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 15.4% | 23.1% |
| Ben Buhl | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.