← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Old Dominion University4.01+5.19vs Predicted
-
2Georgetown University4.74+1.87vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.37vs Predicted
-
4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+2.37vs Predicted
-
5University of Buffalo2.44+6.89vs Predicted
-
6University of Virginia3.54+1.65vs Predicted
-
7Fordham University3.11+2.35vs Predicted
-
8Cornell University2.77+2.59vs Predicted
-
9SUNY Maritime College3.60-1.68vs Predicted
-
10Columbia University2.55+1.78vs Predicted
-
11Christopher Newport University2.46+0.97vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.75vs Predicted
-
13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-6.86vs Predicted
-
14Monmouth University1.95-0.55vs Predicted
-
15George Washington University2.38-2.91vs Predicted
-
16Washington College3.07-6.44vs Predicted
-
17Webb Institute1.81-2.73vs Predicted
-
18University of Pennsylvania2.68-7.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.19Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
-
3.87Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
-
7.37U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
-
6.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
-
11.89University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
-
7.65University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
-
9.35Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
-
10.59Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
-
7.32SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
-
11.78Columbia University2.550.0%1st Place
-
11.97Christopher Newport University2.460.0%1st Place
-
10.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
-
6.14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
-
13.45Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
-
12.09George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
-
9.56Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
-
14.27Webb Institute1.810.0%1st Place
-
10.88University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Paiva | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Chris Barnard | 18.9% | 18.4% | 16.3% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Grove | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 9.1% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Griffin Orr | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 9.4% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Connor Godfrey | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.7% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 3.8% |
| Harry Scott | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Conor Cashel | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 7.5% |
| Ben Buhl | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 9.1% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 15.8% | 20.0% |
| Ian Connors | 2.3% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Dylan Froriep | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 15.0% | 29.4% |
| Michael Russom | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.