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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.67+6.39vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.74+1.92vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+3.50vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.38+7.91vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia3.54+2.62vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University2.46+5.91vs Predicted
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7Washington College3.07+2.50vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University4.01-2.14vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-2.81vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.77+0.88vs Predicted
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11University of Buffalo2.44+1.05vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.74vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.60-5.64vs Predicted
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14Monmouth University1.95-0.64vs Predicted
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15Columbia University2.55-3.48vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.71-1.55vs Predicted
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17Fordham University3.11-7.50vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.68-7.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.39U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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3.92Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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6.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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11.91George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
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7.62University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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11.91Christopher Newport University2.460.0%1st Place
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9.5Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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5.86Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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6.19St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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10.88Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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12.05University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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10.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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7.36SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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13.36Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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11.52Columbia University2.550.0%1st Place
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14.45Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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9.5Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
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10.82University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Grove | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Chris Barnard | 18.2% | 17.9% | 16.0% | 13.3% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ian Connors | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 10.3% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Ben Buhl | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.9% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Dillon Paiva | 11.2% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 4.3% |
| Griffin Orr | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 9.5% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 3.1% |
| Harry Scott | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 15.4% | 19.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 16.9% | 29.9% |
| Connor Godfrey | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Michael Russom | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.