← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+5.62vs Predicted
-
2Webb Institute1.71+12.66vs Predicted
-
3Old Dominion University4.01+3.09vs Predicted
-
4Christopher Newport University2.46+7.63vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Naval Academy3.67+2.13vs Predicted
-
6Georgetown University4.74-2.19vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95+2.99vs Predicted
-
8University of Buffalo2.44+3.88vs Predicted
-
9Fordham University3.11+0.27vs Predicted
-
10SUNY Maritime College3.60-2.37vs Predicted
-
11University of Virginia3.54-3.29vs Predicted
-
12Washington College3.07-2.24vs Predicted
-
13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92-6.88vs Predicted
-
14Cornell University2.77-3.70vs Predicted
-
15Monmouth University1.95-1.35vs Predicted
-
16George Washington University2.38-3.70vs Predicted
-
17Columbia University2.55-5.36vs Predicted
-
18University of Pennsylvania2.68-7.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
-
14.66Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
-
6.09Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
-
11.63Christopher Newport University2.460.0%1st Place
-
7.13U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
-
3.81Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
-
9.99U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
-
11.88University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
-
9.27Fordham University3.110.0%1st Place
-
7.63SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
-
7.71University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
-
9.76Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
-
6.12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
-
10.3Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
-
13.65Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
-
12.3George Washington University2.380.0%1st Place
-
11.64Columbia University2.550.0%1st Place
-
10.82University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fast | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 10.2% | 16.6% | 32.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 8.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Buhl | 2.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 6.8% |
| Michael Grove | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Chris Barnard | 21.6% | 18.1% | 16.5% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 7.1% |
| Connor Godfrey | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Harry Scott | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 10.7% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% |
| Paul Stevens | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 14.8% | 21.2% |
| Ian Connors | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 11.6% |
| Conor Cashel | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 8.2% |
| Michael Russom | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.