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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.74+5.16vs Predicted
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2Cornell University3.35+5.47vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.82+2.79vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24+3.53vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University4.36-0.90vs Predicted
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6Columbia University2.43+4.63vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College3.06+1.35vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia3.01+0.45vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.47+1.45vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+1.93vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-5.92vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.56+1.73vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania3.16-5.16vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.84-5.19vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.57-1.61vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.51-5.60vs Predicted
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17Monmouth University-0.09-0.06vs Predicted
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18University of Buffalo1.34-4.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.16U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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7.47Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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5.79Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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7.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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4.1Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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10.63Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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8.35SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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8.45University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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10.45Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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11.93U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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5.08St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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13.73Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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7.84University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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8.81Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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13.39Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
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10.4George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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16.94Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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13.94University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Hall | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Turner | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 9.1% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eddie Cox | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 20.8% | 17.7% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 1.1% |
| Tyler Steel | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Stessing | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Adam Keally | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Samuel Watterson | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 2.5% |
| Fletcher Sims | 14.0% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 16.1% | 21.8% | 8.3% |
| Jack Swikart | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Richard Ross | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 15.1% | 17.8% | 6.7% |
| Maria Sinagra | 3.2% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 0.6% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 12.5% | 69.7% |
| Luke Miller | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 17.1% | 22.6% | 9.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.