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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University4.36+3.26vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.06+6.54vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24+4.83vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.74+1.86vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.82+0.63vs Predicted
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6Cornell University3.35+1.21vs Predicted
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7Washington College2.84+2.14vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-3.06vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania3.16-1.16vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia3.01-1.22vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.47-0.41vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.56+1.77vs Predicted
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13Columbia University2.43-2.58vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12-2.53vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.51-4.73vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University1.57-2.45vs Predicted
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17Monmouth University-0.09-0.09vs Predicted
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18University of Buffalo1.34-4.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.26Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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8.54SUNY Maritime College3.060.0%1st Place
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7.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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5.86U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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5.63Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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7.21Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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9.14Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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4.94St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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7.84University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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8.78University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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10.59Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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13.77Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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10.42Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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11.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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10.27George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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13.55Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
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16.91Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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13.97University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevin Snow | 16.9% | 16.7% | 15.1% | 12.5% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Eddie Cox | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Mary Hall | 10.5% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 12.3% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Turner | 7.0% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Fletcher Sims | 13.2% | 14.7% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Stessing | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Adam Keally | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Casey Brown | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 16.0% | 21.8% | 8.1% |
| Irene Jacqz | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| Samuel Watterson | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 2.1% |
| Maria Sinagra | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 1.0% |
| Richard Ross | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 13.7% | 15.1% | 18.8% | 7.6% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 6.3% | 12.8% | 68.9% |
| Luke Miller | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 18.0% | 22.3% | 9.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.