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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.74+5.13vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.06+6.58vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University4.36+1.16vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.82+1.61vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia3.01+3.43vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24+1.70vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.56+6.45vs Predicted
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8Columbia University2.43+2.50vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-4.07vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.84-0.65vs Predicted
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11Cornell University3.35-3.62vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+0.05vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.51-2.84vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.57-0.80vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.47-4.56vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania3.16-7.97vs Predicted
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17Monmouth University-0.09-0.08vs Predicted
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18University of Buffalo1.34-4.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.13U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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8.58SUNY Maritime College3.060.0%1st Place
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4.16Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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5.61Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.43University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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7.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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13.45Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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10.5Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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4.93St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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9.35Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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7.38Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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12.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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10.16George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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13.2Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
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10.44Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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8.03University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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16.92Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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13.98University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Hall | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 18.3% | 16.0% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 10.9% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Eddie Cox | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 17.0% | 19.3% | 7.6% |
| Irene Jacqz | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| Fletcher Sims | 13.6% | 14.3% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Turner | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Watterson | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% |
| Maria Sinagra | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| Richard Ross | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 16.3% | 17.7% | 6.4% |
| Adam Keally | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 12.6% | 69.5% |
| Luke Miller | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 12.2% | 14.8% | 23.9% | 9.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.