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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.74+5.20vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.36+2.22vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.82+2.80vs Predicted
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4University of Virginia3.01+4.45vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.47+5.37vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24+1.71vs Predicted
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7Cornell University3.35+0.24vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.51+2.20vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.43+1.64vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.12+1.95vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-5.85vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.57+1.69vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania3.16-5.15vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.84-5.17vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute1.56-1.58vs Predicted
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16Monmouth University-0.09+0.87vs Predicted
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17University of Buffalo1.34-2.75vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College3.06-9.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.2U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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4.22Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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5.8Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.45University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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10.37Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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7.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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7.24Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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10.2George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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10.64Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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11.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.120.0%1st Place
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5.15St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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13.69Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
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7.85University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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8.83Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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13.42Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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16.87Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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14.25University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
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8.14SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Hall | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 15.4% | 17.5% | 15.3% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Adam Keally | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 0.3% |
| Eddie Cox | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Turner | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Maria Sinagra | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 0.3% |
| Irene Jacqz | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 0.5% |
| Samuel Watterson | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 2.3% |
| Fletcher Sims | 14.0% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Richard Ross | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 15.8% | 21.2% | 7.9% |
| Jack Swikart | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Casey Brown | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 15.6% | 18.2% | 6.7% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 11.7% | 68.2% |
| Luke Miller | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 16.5% | 23.7% | 13.5% |
| Tyler Steel | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.