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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+4.14vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.82+3.75vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University4.36+1.12vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.16+3.73vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.84+3.95vs Predicted
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6Cornell University3.35+1.20vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College3.06+1.21vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.47+2.21vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.74-3.21vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24-2.22vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.51-0.68vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+2.04vs Predicted
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13Columbia University2.43-2.64vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia3.01-5.83vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute1.56-1.69vs Predicted
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16Monmouth University-0.09+0.78vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University1.57-3.59vs Predicted
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18University of Buffalo1.34-4.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.14St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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5.75Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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4.12Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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7.73University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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8.95Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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7.2Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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8.21SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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10.21Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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5.79U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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7.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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10.32George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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14.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
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10.36Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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8.17University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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13.31Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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16.78Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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13.41Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
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13.75University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fletcher Sims | 13.1% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 8.6% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Nevin Snow | 17.6% | 17.3% | 14.7% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Turner | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Adam Keally | 3.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Mary Hall | 9.5% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eddie Cox | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Maria Sinagra | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| James Gardner | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 15.4% | 21.3% | 11.3% |
| Irene Jacqz | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 0.9% |
| Christopher Stessing | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 16.7% | 15.2% | 6.2% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 14.8% | 64.8% |
| Richard Ross | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 13.5% | 16.8% | 16.6% | 6.9% |
| Luke Miller | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 16.6% | 19.0% | 8.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.