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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.74+5.11vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.82+3.75vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.06+5.37vs Predicted
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4Cornell University3.35+3.07vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-0.06vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University4.36-1.88vs Predicted
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7University of Virginia3.01+1.37vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24-0.55vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.47+1.32vs Predicted
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10Columbia University2.43+0.67vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.56+2.36vs Predicted
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12University of Buffalo1.34+2.17vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.51-2.98vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.84-5.30vs Predicted
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15Monmouth University-0.09+1.81vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-2.18vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University1.57-3.68vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania3.16-10.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.11U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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5.75Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.37SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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7.07Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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4.94St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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4.12Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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8.37University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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7.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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10.32Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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10.67Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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13.36Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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14.17University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
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10.02George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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8.7Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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16.81Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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13.82U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
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13.32Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
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7.63University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Hall | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 8.9% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Turner | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Fletcher Sims | 14.7% | 14.2% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 18.5% | 17.1% | 15.3% | 11.9% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Eddie Cox | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Adam Keally | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Irene Jacqz | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 0.3% |
| Casey Brown | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 14.0% | 16.9% | 15.2% | 7.0% |
| Luke Miller | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 15.4% | 24.2% | 10.5% |
| Maria Sinagra | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 12.3% | 65.1% |
| James Gardner | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 15.3% | 19.7% | 9.1% |
| Richard Ross | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 18.2% | 14.6% | 6.7% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.