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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+4.10vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.36+2.16vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.74+3.01vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.82+1.55vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24+2.49vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.84+2.99vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College3.06+1.18vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia3.01+0.32vs Predicted
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9Cornell University3.35-1.92vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.57+3.39vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.47-0.55vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+2.05vs Predicted
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13Columbia University2.43-2.65vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.56-0.92vs Predicted
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15Monmouth University-0.09+1.80vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.51-5.73vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania3.16-9.09vs Predicted
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18University of Buffalo1.34-4.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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4.16Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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6.01U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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5.55Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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7.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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8.99Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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8.18SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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8.32University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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7.08Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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13.39Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
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10.45Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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14.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
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10.35Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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13.08Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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16.8Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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10.27George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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7.91University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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13.81University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fletcher Sims | 12.7% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 16.4% | 17.6% | 15.1% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Hall | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 11.7% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eddie Cox | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.4% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Stessing | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Turner | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Richard Ross | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 17.6% | 15.5% | 6.7% |
| Adam Keally | 3.9% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 0.7% |
| James Gardner | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 15.7% | 22.7% | 10.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
| Casey Brown | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 14.5% | 14.4% | 6.9% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 14.6% | 64.1% |
| Maria Sinagra | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Jack Swikart | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Luke Miller | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 17.5% | 19.4% | 9.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.