← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+4.14vs Predicted
-
2Georgetown University4.36+2.16vs Predicted
-
3Old Dominion University3.82+2.74vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Naval Academy3.74+1.80vs Predicted
-
5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24+2.50vs Predicted
-
6University of Virginia3.01+2.44vs Predicted
-
7Monmouth University-0.09+9.76vs Predicted
-
8Washington College2.84+0.90vs Predicted
-
9Fordham University2.47+1.32vs Predicted
-
10Christopher Newport University1.57+3.46vs Predicted
-
11SUNY Maritime College3.06-2.72vs Predicted
-
12Cornell University3.35-4.57vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+0.63vs Predicted
-
14George Washington University2.51-4.14vs Predicted
-
15Columbia University2.43-4.58vs Predicted
-
16University of Pennsylvania3.16-8.10vs Predicted
-
17Webb Institute1.56-3.54vs Predicted
-
18University of Buffalo1.34-4.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.14St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
-
4.16Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
-
5.74Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
-
5.8U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
-
7.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
-
8.44University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
-
16.76Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
-
8.9Washington College2.840.1%1st Place
-
10.32Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
-
13.46Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
-
8.28SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
-
7.43Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
-
13.63U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
-
9.86George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
-
10.42Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
-
7.9University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
-
13.46Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
-
13.81University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fletcher Sims | 13.8% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 16.4% | 17.6% | 16.4% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 10.3% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mary Hall | 10.8% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eddie Cox | 6.2% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.9% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 11.7% | 65.8% |
| Ryan Bailey | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Adam Keally | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Richard Ross | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 12.5% | 17.9% | 16.4% | 7.5% |
| Tyler Steel | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Turner | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| James Gardner | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 13.1% | 13.9% | 20.7% | 8.1% |
| Maria Sinagra | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Irene Jacqz | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 0.6% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Casey Brown | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 15.7% | 18.9% | 7.0% |
| Luke Miller | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 16.6% | 19.1% | 9.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.