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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University3.82+4.93vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+3.18vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+3.40vs Predicted
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4Cornell University3.35+3.14vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.74+0.98vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.16+1.91vs Predicted
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7Columbia University2.43+3.58vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University4.36-3.90vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia3.01-0.56vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+3.93vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.06-2.62vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.51-1.46vs Predicted
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13Washington College2.84-4.09vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.47-3.88vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute1.56-1.66vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University1.57-2.60vs Predicted
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17Monmouth University-0.09-0.13vs Predicted
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18University of Buffalo1.34-4.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.93Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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5.18St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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6.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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7.14Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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5.98U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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7.91University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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10.58Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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4.1Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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8.44University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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13.93U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
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8.38SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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10.54George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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8.91Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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10.12Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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13.34Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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13.4Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
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16.87Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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13.88University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Forrer | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 11.3% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 9.2% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Turner | 6.9% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Mary Hall | 11.0% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Irene Jacqz | 2.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Nevin Snow | 19.1% | 18.1% | 14.2% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| James Gardner | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 17.2% | 21.0% | 9.2% |
| Tyler Steel | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Maria Sinagra | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Adam Keally | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Casey Brown | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 17.2% | 16.2% | 6.0% |
| Richard Ross | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 16.6% | 14.8% | 6.2% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 13.3% | 67.0% |
| Luke Miller | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 16.8% | 21.2% | 8.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.