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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.74+5.14vs Predicted
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2Washington College2.84+7.24vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University4.36+1.23vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.47+6.28vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia3.01+3.45vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-0.94vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-0.81vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania3.16-0.12vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+4.79vs Predicted
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10Cornell University3.35-2.53vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.56+2.43vs Predicted
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12Columbia University2.43-1.16vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University3.82-7.42vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.57-0.93vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.51-4.79vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College3.06-7.65vs Predicted
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17University of Buffalo1.34-2.92vs Predicted
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18Monmouth University-0.09-1.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.14U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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9.24Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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4.23Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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10.28Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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8.45University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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5.06St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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6.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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7.88University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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13.79U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
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7.47Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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13.43Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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10.84Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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5.58Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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13.07Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
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10.21George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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8.35SUNY Maritime College3.060.0%1st Place
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14.08University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
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16.7Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Hall | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Nevin Snow | 15.4% | 18.2% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Keally | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Christopher Stessing | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Fletcher Sims | 13.8% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 9.4% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| James Gardner | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 16.4% | 19.5% | 7.9% |
| Lauren Turner | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 14.4% | 17.2% | 7.7% |
| Irene Jacqz | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 0.5% |
| Esteban Forrer | 12.0% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard Ross | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 12.9% | 15.5% | 13.9% | 6.7% |
| Maria Sinagra | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Steel | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Luke Miller | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 9.8% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 13.6% | 65.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.