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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University3.82+4.87vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+4.43vs Predicted
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3Washington College2.84+6.30vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+1.04vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University4.36-0.87vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.74-0.07vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.57+6.28vs Predicted
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8Cornell University3.35-0.85vs Predicted
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9Columbia University2.43+1.54vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania3.16-1.85vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia3.01-2.41vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.56+1.58vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.47-2.75vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College3.06-5.99vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.51-4.80vs Predicted
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16Monmouth University-0.09+0.79vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-3.11vs Predicted
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18University of Buffalo1.34-4.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.87Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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6.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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9.3Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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5.04St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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4.13Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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5.93U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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13.28Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
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7.15Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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10.54Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
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8.15University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
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8.59University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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13.58Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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10.25Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
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8.01SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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10.2George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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16.79Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
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13.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
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13.84University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Forrer | 10.6% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Fletcher Sims | 13.2% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 20.1% | 17.4% | 13.3% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Hall | 9.7% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard Ross | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 16.7% | 17.9% | 5.2% |
| Lauren Turner | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Irene Jacqz | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | 0.3% |
| Jack Swikart | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Casey Brown | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 16.2% | 18.1% | 7.7% |
| Adam Keally | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Steel | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Maria Sinagra | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 12.7% | 66.1% |
| James Gardner | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 16.8% | 18.9% | 10.8% |
| Luke Miller | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 16.8% | 19.5% | 8.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.