← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+5.45vs Predicted
-
2Fordham University2.47+8.70vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy3.74+3.09vs Predicted
-
4Old Dominion University3.82+1.59vs Predicted
-
5University of Buffalo1.34+8.84vs Predicted
-
6Georgetown University4.36-1.90vs Predicted
-
7SUNY Maritime College3.06+1.28vs Predicted
-
8St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-3.00vs Predicted
-
9Christopher Newport University1.57+4.38vs Predicted
-
10Columbia University2.43+0.69vs Predicted
-
11University of Pennsylvania3.16-2.95vs Predicted
-
12George Washington University2.51-1.43vs Predicted
-
13Cornell University3.35-5.87vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-0.47vs Predicted
-
15Washington College2.84-5.92vs Predicted
-
16Webb Institute1.56-2.56vs Predicted
-
17Monmouth University-0.09-0.15vs Predicted
-
18University of Virginia3.01-9.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
-
10.7Fordham University2.470.0%1st Place
-
6.09U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
-
5.59Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
-
13.84University of Buffalo1.340.0%1st Place
-
4.1Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
-
8.28SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
-
5.0St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
-
13.38Christopher Newport University1.570.0%1st Place
-
10.69Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
-
8.05University of Pennsylvania3.160.1%1st Place
-
10.57George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
-
7.13Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
-
13.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.410.0%1st Place
-
9.08Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
-
13.44Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
-
16.85Monmouth University-0.090.0%1st Place
-
8.23University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Keally | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| Mary Hall | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 11.9% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Miller | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 17.5% | 19.6% | 10.8% |
| Nevin Snow | 19.3% | 16.1% | 15.1% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 13.8% | 13.9% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard Ross | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 14.8% | 16.5% | 15.5% | 5.8% |
| Irene Jacqz | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 0.7% |
| Jack Swikart | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Maria Sinagra | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 0.7% |
| Lauren Turner | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| James Gardner | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 14.9% | 20.4% | 6.7% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Casey Brown | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 15.8% | 17.5% | 6.4% |
| Brogan Savage | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 12.0% | 67.7% |
| Christopher Stessing | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.