← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Pennsylvania1.28+4.62vs Predicted
-
2Palm Beach Atlantic University1.26+3.62vs Predicted
-
3Fordham University0.69+4.06vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania1.71+0.55vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+0.88vs Predicted
-
6Fordham University1.18-0.13vs Predicted
-
7University of Pennsylvania1.45-1.52vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-0.78vs Predicted
-
9SUNY Maritime College1.88-4.67vs Predicted
-
10SUNY Maritime College-0.25-0.67vs Predicted
-
11Fordham University1.54-5.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.62University of Pennsylvania1.288.3%1st Place
-
5.62Palm Beach Atlantic University1.268.5%1st Place
-
7.06Fordham University0.696.0%1st Place
-
4.55University of Pennsylvania1.7113.7%1st Place
-
5.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.228.6%1st Place
-
5.87Fordham University1.187.9%1st Place
-
5.48University of Pennsylvania1.459.9%1st Place
-
7.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.485.3%1st Place
-
4.33SUNY Maritime College1.8817.0%1st Place
-
9.33SUNY Maritime College-0.251.8%1st Place
-
5.03Fordham University1.5413.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Majernik | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 3.0% |
Thomas Green | 8.5% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 3.8% |
James Owen | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 17.8% | 12.2% |
Benjamin Honig | 13.7% | 13.8% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
Lars Osell | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 3.7% |
Will Donovan | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 4.4% |
Madeleine Rice | 9.9% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 3.1% |
Patrick Modin | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 14.1% | 16.4% | 13.4% |
Spencer Barnes | 17.0% | 15.0% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
Rebecca Runyan | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 14.8% | 52.9% |
Lucas Thress | 13.0% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.