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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northeastern University1.59+9.40vs Predicted
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2North Carolina State University1.57+6.61vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.00+7.66vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.21+5.29vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.98+1.71vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy1.78+2.27vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68+0.83vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.44+1.18vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.65+4.54vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.06-3.69vs Predicted
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11Boston University0.95-0.74vs Predicted
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12University of Miami2.32-4.94vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.71-5.34vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University2.10-7.72vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.72-2.04vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.87-6.82vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.26-8.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.4Northeastern University1.593.4%1st Place
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8.61North Carolina State University1.576.2%1st Place
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10.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.003.2%1st Place
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9.29Cornell University1.215.0%1st Place
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6.71Fordham University1.9810.2%1st Place
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8.27U. S. Naval Academy1.786.2%1st Place
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7.83St. Mary's College of Maryland1.687.3%1st Place
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9.18George Washington University1.444.7%1st Place
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13.54Christopher Newport University0.651.8%1st Place
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6.31Tulane University2.0610.4%1st Place
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10.26Boston University0.954.4%1st Place
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7.06University of Miami2.328.4%1st Place
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7.66Webb Institute1.716.2%1st Place
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6.28Jacksonville University2.1010.9%1st Place
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12.96Hampton University0.721.6%1st Place
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9.18University of Vermont0.875.3%1st Place
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8.79Old Dominion University1.264.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 6.9% |
| Kevin Gosselin | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 7.5% |
| Gilda Dondona | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 3.8% |
| Jacob Zils | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Tanner Kelly | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Nathan Jensen | 7.3% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 15.6% | 34.4% |
| Zander King | 10.4% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Dylan Balunas | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 6.7% |
| Atlee Kohl | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Calvin Schmid | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Owen Bannasch | 10.9% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 16.5% | 25.4% |
| Christian Cushman | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 3.4% |
| Blake Goodwin | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.