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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+2.18vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.11+3.90vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+3.35vs Predicted
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4Drexel University1.64+3.47vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.85-0.72vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.45-0.62vs Predicted
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7Columbia University1.30+1.14vs Predicted
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8Princeton University0.55+2.22vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.89-2.19vs Predicted
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10U. S. Military Academy1.22-1.31vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.67-6.28vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester0.99-3.73vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University-0.22-2.22vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester0.99-5.73vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.88-3.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.3%1st Place
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5.9Fordham University2.110.1%1st Place
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6.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.1%1st Place
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7.47Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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4.28Cornell University2.850.1%1st Place
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5.38Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.14Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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10.22Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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6.81SUNY Maritime College1.890.1%1st Place
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8.69U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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4.72George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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9.27University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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11.78Syracuse University-0.220.0%1st Place
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9.27University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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12.81SUNY Stony Brook-0.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Morrill | 27.4% | 20.9% | 15.6% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mia Cooper | 7.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Neuman | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Chris Myers | 3.7% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Borshoff | 13.2% | 17.3% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 9.9% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 5.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Grasso | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 14.3% | 17.6% | 20.6% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| John Nothacker | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 10.7% | 13.7% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Hannah McNomee | 13.2% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Elliot Greenwald | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 8.3% | 15.4% | 30.1% | 26.7% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Mary Loffredo | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 10.1% | 18.5% | 56.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.