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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+2.17vs Predicted
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2Drexel University1.64+5.28vs Predicted
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3Washington College2.45+2.14vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.11+2.11vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.85-0.70vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+0.49vs Predicted
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7Princeton University0.55+3.07vs Predicted
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8University of Rochester0.99+1.14vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.89-2.17vs Predicted
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10Columbia University1.30-1.47vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester0.99-1.86vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.67-7.24vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University-0.22-2.10vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.88-2.23vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy1.22-7.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.3%1st Place
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7.28Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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5.14Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
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6.11Fordham University2.110.1%1st Place
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4.3Cornell University2.850.1%1st Place
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6.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.1%1st Place
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10.07Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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9.14University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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6.83SUNY Maritime College1.890.1%1st Place
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8.53Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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9.14University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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4.76George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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11.9Syracuse University-0.220.0%1st Place
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12.77SUNY Stony Brook-0.880.0%1st Place
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8.5U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Morrill | 27.4% | 23.0% | 14.2% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Myers | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 10.7% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mia Cooper | 5.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Borshoff | 13.2% | 16.1% | 16.6% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Neuman | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Grasso | 1.6% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 18.9% | 19.1% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 15.8% | 15.2% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| John Nothacker | 6.3% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 15.8% | 15.2% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Hannah McNomee | 13.3% | 11.7% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elliot Greenwald | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 8.1% | 14.4% | 31.0% | 28.1% | 0.0% |
| Mary Loffredo | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 8.2% | 20.2% | 56.8% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 15.8% | 10.4% | 6.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.