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📊 Prediction Accuracy
13.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+5.30vs Predicted
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2Washington College2.45+3.10vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College1.89+3.71vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-0.75vs Predicted
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5Drexel University1.64+2.56vs Predicted
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6Columbia University1.30+2.50vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.67-2.51vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.11-1.83vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University-0.22+2.88vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.85-5.79vs Predicted
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12University of Rochester0.99-2.72vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.55-2.76vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy1.22-5.47vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester0.99-5.72vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.88-3.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.1%1st Place
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5.1Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
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6.71SUNY Maritime College1.890.1%1st Place
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3.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.2%1st Place
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7.56Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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8.5Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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4.49George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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6.17Fordham University2.110.1%1st Place
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11.88Syracuse University-0.220.0%1st Place
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4.21Cornell University2.850.2%1st Place
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9.28University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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10.24Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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8.53U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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9.28University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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12.78SUNY Stony Brook-0.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Neuman | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 11.0% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Nothacker | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 24.5% | 20.1% | 17.7% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Myers | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 6.1% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Hannah McNomee | 14.7% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mia Cooper | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elliot Greenwald | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 14.3% | 31.5% | 28.0% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Borshoff | 15.1% | 14.0% | 16.2% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 8.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 11.3% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Grasso | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 19.9% | 16.6% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 15.0% | 11.5% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 11.3% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Mary Loffredo | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 20.8% | 55.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.