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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+2.23vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.11+3.96vs Predicted
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3Washington College2.45+2.18vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+2.40vs Predicted
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5Drexel University1.64+2.53vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.89+0.82vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.85-2.92vs Predicted
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8U. S. Military Academy1.22+0.55vs Predicted
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9Princeton University0.55+1.36vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.67-5.34vs Predicted
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11Columbia University1.30-2.56vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University-0.22-0.12vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester0.99-3.88vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester0.99-4.88vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.88-3.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.3%1st Place
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5.96Fordham University2.110.1%1st Place
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5.18Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
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6.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.1%1st Place
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7.53Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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6.82SUNY Maritime College1.890.1%1st Place
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4.08Cornell University2.850.2%1st Place
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8.55U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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10.36Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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4.66George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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8.44Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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11.88Syracuse University-0.220.0%1st Place
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9.12University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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9.12University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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12.8SUNY Stony Brook-0.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Morrill | 26.9% | 19.8% | 16.1% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mia Cooper | 7.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 9.9% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Austin Neuman | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chris Myers | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| John Nothacker | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Borshoff | 16.8% | 16.2% | 13.5% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 3.8% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 7.6% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Grasso | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 11.3% | 15.9% | 19.8% | 17.9% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Hannah McNomee | 11.6% | 13.3% | 13.1% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 13.9% | 10.7% | 6.3% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Elliot Greenwald | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 31.5% | 26.3% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 14.0% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 14.0% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Mary Loffredo | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 8.8% | 19.2% | 57.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.