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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+5.27vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+1.15vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College1.89+3.73vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.45+1.24vs Predicted
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5U. S. Military Academy1.22+3.65vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.11+0.21vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.85-2.95vs Predicted
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8Princeton University0.55+2.17vs Predicted
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9Columbia University1.30-0.57vs Predicted
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10Drexel University1.64-2.48vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester0.99-1.70vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University-0.22-0.12vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.67-9.39vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester0.99-5.70vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.88-3.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.1%1st Place
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3.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.3%1st Place
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6.73SUNY Maritime College1.890.1%1st Place
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5.24Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.65U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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6.21Fordham University2.110.1%1st Place
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4.05Cornell University2.850.2%1st Place
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10.17Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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8.43Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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7.52Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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9.3University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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11.88Syracuse University-0.220.0%1st Place
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4.61George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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9.3University of Rochester0.990.0%1st Place
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12.79SUNY Stony Brook-0.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Neuman | 6.3% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 25.6% | 20.9% | 16.9% | 14.3% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Nothacker | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 9.7% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 6.7% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Mia Cooper | 6.6% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Borshoff | 17.1% | 16.7% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Grasso | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 18.4% | 18.7% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 13.8% | 13.3% | 10.6% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Chris Myers | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 2.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 15.8% | 14.8% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Elliot Greenwald | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 8.2% | 15.8% | 31.3% | 26.3% | 0.0% |
| Hannah McNomee | 13.5% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Luly | 2.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 15.8% | 14.8% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Mary Loffredo | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 9.5% | 19.4% | 56.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.