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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.30+1.96vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.68+4.38vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.55+1.60vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+3.05vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College0.34+5.77vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida1.09+2.30vs Predicted
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7Tufts University0.69+2.41vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63-1.13vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.32-0.62vs Predicted
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10Harvard University1.90-3.94vs Predicted
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11Boston College1.58-3.66vs Predicted
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12Tulane University1.73-5.27vs Predicted
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13Brown University1.92-6.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.96Stanford University3.3029.6%1st Place
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6.38Cornell University1.688.2%1st Place
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4.6Yale University2.5513.2%1st Place
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7.05St. Mary's College of Maryland1.764.9%1st Place
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10.77Connecticut College0.341.7%1st Place
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8.3University of South Florida1.093.6%1st Place
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9.41Tufts University0.692.4%1st Place
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6.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.636.1%1st Place
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8.38George Washington University1.323.5%1st Place
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6.06Harvard University1.907.1%1st Place
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7.34Boston College1.585.1%1st Place
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6.73Tulane University1.736.3%1st Place
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6.15Brown University1.928.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 29.6% | 21.6% | 16.3% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| Emma Cowles | 13.2% | 15.0% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Madison Bashaw | 4.9% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 3.8% |
| Hailey Pemberton | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 16.2% | 44.2% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 9.5% |
| Samantha Jensen | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 19.5% | 18.8% |
| Lucy Brock | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 3.2% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 14.4% | 9.6% |
| Sarah Burn | 7.1% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Libby Redmond | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 3.6% |
| Caroline Benson | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| Caroline Bayless | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.