Race 3A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Vanessa Lahrkamp 30.6% 21.1% 16.4% 11.6% 7.8% 6.2% 3.5% 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Emma Cowles 13.4% 12.8% 13.2% 12.7% 11.2% 10.2% 8.5% 7.6% 4.0% 3.7% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1%
J.J. Smith 7.0% 7.0% 8.6% 8.0% 8.8% 10.0% 9.6% 9.5% 8.5% 7.8% 6.9% 5.5% 2.9%
Samantha Jensen 2.1% 2.4% 4.0% 3.5% 4.4% 5.1% 4.8% 6.2% 7.8% 10.2% 13.1% 17.2% 19.2%
Sarah Burn 8.2% 9.2% 10.4% 9.4% 8.8% 8.6% 10.6% 8.8% 7.6% 8.0% 5.3% 3.5% 1.4%
Caroline Benson 6.1% 8.3% 7.0% 8.0% 10.1% 8.7% 9.2% 9.6% 9.8% 8.3% 6.4% 6.2% 2.4%
Libby Redmond 4.8% 7.1% 6.6% 6.3% 7.8% 8.6% 9.0% 9.2% 9.3% 9.0% 10.8% 8.3% 3.2%
Caroline Bayless 7.5% 8.8% 8.8% 9.6% 10.4% 9.2% 9.8% 9.7% 8.6% 6.8% 6.3% 2.9% 1.6%
Emma AuBuchon 4.4% 4.2% 4.9% 4.7% 5.9% 6.3% 7.0% 7.5% 9.6% 9.8% 12.5% 14.1% 9.2%
Madison Bashaw 5.5% 7.0% 6.7% 7.9% 8.2% 8.5% 9.2% 9.1% 9.2% 10.4% 9.0% 6.3% 3.0%
Emma Shakespeare 3.6% 4.3% 4.6% 7.1% 6.0% 6.5% 6.6% 7.9% 9.2% 10.8% 11.1% 13.1% 9.3%
Lucy Brock 5.7% 6.2% 7.5% 8.8% 8.5% 9.2% 9.4% 10.1% 9.8% 8.9% 7.8% 5.5% 2.7%
Hailey Pemberton 1.1% 1.7% 1.2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.8% 2.8% 3.7% 5.7% 6.0% 9.0% 16.6% 44.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.