Race 4A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Vanessa Lahrkamp 29.5% 23.2% 16.9% 12.0% 8.6% 3.9% 3.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Emma Cowles 14.5% 13.1% 13.0% 14.9% 10.4% 10.5% 8.8% 5.5% 4.2% 3.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Emma Shakespeare 3.9% 4.0% 4.9% 5.1% 5.8% 5.4% 7.2% 8.6% 10.3% 11.1% 15.2% 14.4% 4.2%
Caroline Bayless 8.1% 9.2% 9.3% 9.6% 10.2% 10.1% 10.2% 9.1% 7.3% 7.9% 5.1% 3.6% 0.4%
Libby Redmond 5.8% 5.3% 6.0% 7.1% 8.4% 8.2% 8.6% 9.8% 10.2% 10.2% 10.8% 8.0% 1.6%
Madison Bashaw 5.7% 6.8% 7.1% 7.8% 8.4% 8.8% 8.8% 9.6% 9.9% 10.1% 10.0% 5.7% 1.4%
Emma AuBuchon 4.0% 4.7% 5.0% 5.1% 6.5% 6.9% 7.0% 8.2% 10.8% 10.9% 13.3% 14.3% 3.4%
Samantha Jensen 2.9% 2.8% 3.8% 3.7% 4.5% 5.0% 6.1% 6.5% 7.8% 9.7% 13.6% 25.9% 7.8%
Lucy Brock 5.9% 6.4% 8.1% 7.2% 8.0% 10.1% 9.0% 10.2% 9.5% 10.3% 8.1% 6.2% 0.9%
Sarah Burn 7.0% 9.6% 9.2% 9.8% 10.5% 11.0% 10.8% 9.0% 8.2% 6.2% 5.2% 3.2% 0.4%
J.J. Smith 6.2% 7.3% 8.1% 8.8% 9.4% 10.6% 9.6% 9.8% 8.9% 9.3% 6.9% 4.5% 0.5%
Caroline Benson 6.2% 7.3% 8.4% 8.8% 8.6% 8.8% 9.6% 10.5% 10.2% 8.3% 7.1% 5.0% 1.1%
Sophia Rey 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.6% 2.0% 2.3% 3.5% 8.6% 78.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.